Oil prices jumped sharply as the United States and Iran traded their most intense strikes yet, sending shockwaves through global energy markets and pushing Brent crude surging past $98 a barrel while WTI topped $94-levels not seen since the opening days of the conflict-as traders scrambled to price in the growing risk of a full maritime closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's entire oil supply flows every single day.
The fear driving markets is not merely theoretical-Iran has already declared the strait officially closed and deployed mines, fast boats and anti-ship missiles across the narrow waterway, prompting the US Navy's Fifth Fleet to begin urgent minesweeping operations and triggering emergency meetings of the International Energy Agency and G7 energy ministers as the world's most critical shipping lane teetered on the edge of total shutdown.
Energy traders are now pricing in a worst-case scenario that analysts say could push Brent crude past $130 a barrel within weeks if the closure holds — a level that would send fuel costs spiking to record highs across Europe, Asia and the Americas, threatening to unravel two years of hard-won progress on inflation and potentially tipping multiple major economies into recession.
